Tunisian elections: Repression and migrant crackdowns raise concerns over Saied’s grip on power

Observers are questioning whether the North African country is sliding back into authoritarian rule.

Ahead of the upcoming elections on October 6, President Kais Saied has been accused of undermining the democratic foundations of the electoral process.

Of the 17 presidential candidates who initially declared their intent to run, 14 have been arrested or disqualified from the race.

Recently, the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE) in Tunisia approved only three candidates: President Saied, former parliament member Zouhair Maghzaoui, and businessman Ayachi Zammel, who leads a small party.

However, many observers question the independence of the electoral body, as all seven members were appointed directly by Saied.

Protests erupted outside the ISIE headquarters following the announcement, with demonstrators taking to the streets to express their discontent over the limited number of candidates allowed to run.

Uncertainty looms over Zammel’s candidacy after he was temporarily detained by police on September 4.

According to his lawyer, Zammel is accused of forging signatures, an allegation he denies.

Ramadan Ben Omar, spokesperson for the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights, told DW, “We might witness elections with candidates in prison.”

The ISIE’s recent decision to approve the candidacies of Saied, Maghzaoui, and Zammel contradicts a ruling by the Administrative Court on August 31, which is the only legal body authorized to resolve electoral candidacy disputes.

The court had reinstated the candidacies of three other contenders who had appealed against their disqualification.

Heike Löschmann, director of the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s Tunis office, stated to DW, “By ignoring the Administrative Court’s decision to accept the other three candidates, the legitimacy of the electoral process has been undermined.”

A Return to Authoritarianism?

Kais Saied, a former law professor, was elected democratically as president in 2019 with 72% of the vote. However, in July 2021, he began consolidating his power and dismantling most of the country’s democratic institutions.

Since then, the suppression of political opposition, the silencing of independent media, and the undermining of judicial independence have become part of Tunisia’s new reality, according to human rights organizations.

This summer, Saied also dismissed most government members and imposed gag orders on opposition leaders.

“The current situation is unprecedented, as the president seeks re-election by sidelining opponents without allowing competition or free and fair elections,” Hamza Meddeb, a researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told DW.

Meddeb describes this regression as a reversal of the achievements of the 2011 Arab Spring revolutions. “Tunisia, which was a beacon of democracy in the region for a decade, is now witnessing a return to authoritarian rule, with little hope of a democratic recovery.”

Saied, however, sees the situation differently. In August, he told the state-run Tunisian news agency, “No pressure has been exerted on anyone,” adding that “those who complain of obstacles and difficulties are seeking to spread chaos, rumors, and lies.”

Despite his assertions, Saied’s popularity has waned over the past three years. Last year’s parliamentary elections saw a historically low turnout of just 11%.

Exploiting Migration Issues

In his re-election campaign, Saied has emphasized that his victory is essential to the “national liberation war,” which he claims is reflected in the migration crisis.

Tunisia has become a key departure point for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa attempting to reach Europe.

The crackdown on migrants has also extended to targeting local NGOs that assist them. Several civil society offices have been closed, accounts have been seized, and multiple individuals have been arrested.

Among those detained is Saadia Mosbah, head of the “Mnemty” organization, which advocates for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa.

“Saadia Mosbah remains in custody without formal charges,” said Ziad Rouini, the organization’s coordinator, via Telegram to DW. “Since then, Mnemty has been in complete stagnation.”

Ramadan Ben Omar from the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights noted that this intensifying campaign “undermines the remaining gains of the revolution, such as freedom, pluralism, and free expression, while criminalizing and banning any form of solidarity and assistance.”

Nonetheless, a €1 billion deal with the European Union in the summer of 2023 to help Tunisia’s struggling economy has led the country to curb migration to Italy, resulting in a 70% reduction, according to Italian authorities.

Domestically, Saied has repeatedly described migrants as a threat to society, portraying himself as a savior, according to Meddeb.

Increasingly, the crackdown on migrants has also targeted Tunisian NGOs that provide assistance.