The fragile stability of the Horn of Africa is under severe threat once again, as tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea escalate, prompting growing concerns of a full-scale war between the two longtime adversaries.
General Tsadkan Gebretensae, former vice president of Tigray’s interim administration, recently warned that war between the two nations is “imminent and could erupt at any moment.”
According to analysts, both regimes—under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki—may turn to war as a means to suppress internal dissent and preserve power.
The 2018 alliance between Abiy and Isaias—hailed at the time as a historic peace—has since unraveled.
Initially aimed at weakening Tigray’s political influence, the partnership disintegrated after the joint military campaign left Tigray devastated and its political apparatus fractured.
With Tigray diminished, longstanding tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara have resurfaced.
Credible reports accuse both governments of grave human rights violations in Tigray, including ethnic cleansing and war crimes—allegations largely overlooked by the international community.
Both regimes are now reportedly acquiring sophisticated weaponry and seeking regional allies in preparation for potential conflict.
Abiy’s government, supported by powers like the UAE and Western allies, maintains strategic importance in the region.
However, the administration faces domestic unrest from opposition groups such as FANO, TPLF, and OLF.
Ethiopia’s economic downturn and calls for “access to the Red Sea” have further inflamed nationalist sentiment.
President Isaias, meanwhile, presides over one of the world’s most repressive regimes.
Facing international isolation and a mass exodus of Eritrean youth, his government has few reliable allies.
While Egypt and Sudan may offer quiet support due to geopolitical interests, their capacity to influence the outcome remains uncertain.
The role of Tigray may prove decisive. The region, ravaged by war and now politically fractured, is struggling under a weakened governance structure.
Internal rifts within the TPLF and divisions in the Tigray Defense Forces have left the region vulnerable to renewed conflict.
Former interim leader Getachew Reda and other opposition voices have accused the current TPLF leadership of secret ties with Isaias—claims that have been strongly denied.
As Eritrean and Ethiopian forces eye each other warily, Tigray risks becoming a battlefield once again.
Any renewed conflict could displace thousands more, deepen humanitarian suffering, and destabilize a region already grappling with the weight of foreign interests and civil strife.
With global powers increasingly drawn into strategic rivalries in the Red Sea corridor, the Horn of Africa appears poised on the edge of another devastating war.
