The World Bank has cautioned that Nigeria’s federal government is unlikely to achieve single-digit inflation in the short term, as the country continues to struggle with persistent price pressures.
In its latest Africa’s Pulse report, released on Tuesday, the Bank forecast that Nigeria, along with Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Zimbabwe, will continue to experience double-digit inflation through 2025.
The report highlights that while 37 of Africa’s 47 economies are expected to maintain single-digit inflation by 2026, Nigeria remains an exception. Structural challenges including currency depreciation, high food and energy prices, and supply bottlenecks are continuing to fuel volatility in consumer prices.
“This development contradicts forecasts and undermines the federal government’s optimism that recent fiscal and monetary reforms will quickly bring inflation back to single digits,” the report notes.
The government’s reform measures include the unification of the foreign exchange market, the removal of fuel subsidies, and tightening policies by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Despite these efforts, price pressures remain elevated, particularly in staple foods and energy sectors, limiting the immediate impact of policy adjustments.
During the annual lecture series at Lagos Business School, the CBN Governor reaffirmed that a single-digit inflation rate remains the bank’s medium-term target. However, the World Bank warns that achieving this goal will require sustained structural reforms and improvements in supply chain efficiency.
The assessment underscores a broader trend in sub-Saharan Africa, where most countries are experiencing a wave of disinflation. Yet, Nigeria remains one of the few nations trapped in persistent double-digit inflation, even as the regional average slows to historically low levels.
The report signals that while monetary and fiscal interventions are essential, addressing underlying structural challenges will be critical for Nigeria to stabilise prices, improve purchasing power, and sustain economic growth in the coming years.
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