BMI, the economic research arm of Fitch Solutions, has revised Morocco’s projected GDP growth for 2025 downward to 4.8%, tempering earlier optimism about the pace of the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery.
The updated outlook, down from the previously forecasted 5%, reflects a reassessment of the anticipated rebound in Morocco’s crucial agricultural sector.
While seasonal indicators remain encouraging, analysts at BMI-Fitch have expressed caution regarding the sector’s ability to deliver a strong and sustained contribution to overall economic growth.
Despite the adjustment, the report highlights several key drivers that continue to underpin Morocco’s economic momentum. Chief among them is the expected surge in both public and private investment, bolstered by government-led infrastructure initiatives and ongoing structural reforms.
“Investment activity remains a core pillar of the growth forecast,” the report states, pointing to Morocco’s stable macroeconomic framework and the government’s reform-friendly posture as supportive conditions.
However, it also warns of persistent vulnerabilities that could pose challenges to economic resilience in the months ahead.
Among the primary risks identified are climate-related shocks, including droughts that could disrupt agricultural output, and geopolitical uncertainty across the North African and Sahel regions.
Additionally, Morocco’s trade-heavy reliance on the European Union—currently facing sluggish demand—presents another layer of fragility.
BMI-Fitch notes that these external and environmental risks are compounded by domestic budgetary and social pressures.
Rising fiscal obligations and the need to expand social protection programmes could constrain the government’s ability to maintain a robust growth trajectory without triggering financial imbalances.
The downgrade, though modest, sends a cautionary signal to policymakers as they navigate a complex economic landscape marked by both opportunity and uncertainty.
It also places a spotlight on the importance of climate adaptation, export diversification, and fiscal discipline in achieving Morocco’s medium-term development goals.
About The Author
