The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 from 3.5% to 3.8%, citing falling inflation, stabilizing currencies, and renewed investment in major economies including Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast.
In its October 2025 Africa’s Pulse report, the World Bank noted that the region is gradually recovering from a decade of global shocks, with private consumption and investment showing renewed momentum.
Economic activity is projected to accelerate further, with average annual growth expected to reach 4.4% in 2026–2027.
“Most regional currencies have stabilized, and the weak dollar has supported emerging markets,” said Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa. He highlighted that declining inflation rates—from a median of 9.3% in 2022 to 4.5% in 2024—are expected to stabilise between 3.9% and 4.0% in 2025–2026, underpinning stronger growth prospects.
The World Bank specifically revised its outlook for Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast, attributing the upgrades to rising real incomes and renewed investor confidence. These economies are expected to play a central role in driving regional recovery, attracting both domestic and foreign investment.
However, the report cautions that the recovery remains fragile after years of compounded crises, including high debt levels, low productivity, and external shocks. Long-term stability will require targeted efforts in job creation, particularly for Africa’s youth, as well as stronger support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
The report also warned of lingering vulnerabilities, including persistent public debt, trade uncertainties—particularly regarding the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—and fiscal pressures that could divert resources from essential public services.
While the region shows signs of cautious optimism, the World Bank emphasised that sustainable and inclusive growth will depend on policies that address structural weaknesses, invest in human capital, and bolster economic resilience across the continent.
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