Egypt, long regarded as a demographic powerhouse in Africa and the Arab world, is witnessing a dramatic decline in its birth rate — a startling contrast to the continent’s ongoing population explosion.
In 2024, Egypt recorded just under 2 million births, marking a significant drop of 77,000 from the previous year and the lowest annual figure since 2007. Experts warn this trend signals a profound demographic shift shaped by economic hardship, government policies, and evolving social dynamics.
With a population that has surged from 85 million in 2007 to 107 million today, Egypt’s rapid deceleration in population growth has caught many by surprise. Since 2017, the country’s growth rate has halved, falling below 1.5%, a historic low for a nation still characterised by a youthful and increasingly urban population.
The government has openly embraced population control measures, expanding access to free family health centres and contraceptive services, especially in rural areas where birth rates remain comparatively high.
“Having fewer children is a civic and economic responsibility,” officials have declared, attaching economic aid to families with no more than three children. Awareness campaigns and medical outreach in remote regions underscore this strategy.
Yet demographers emphasize that economic pressures are the primary driver of this demographic shift.
The Egyptian pound’s devaluation—from 7.5 per euro in 2007 to nearly 60 today—has sent prices soaring across fuel, electricity, and daily essentials including baby formula and healthcare.
Inflation peaked near 50% and remains above 15% in 2025, making child-rearing an increasingly costly burden, especially in cities where the crumbling public education system pushes families toward expensive private schools.
Social changes compound the economic strain. Higher female education levels, rising marriage ages, and growing female workforce participation all contribute to smaller family sizes.
Despite its falling birth rate, Egypt remains the continent’s fourth-largest contributor to births, behind Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Countries such as Niger and Mali, though smaller in population, still have some of the world’s highest fertility rates, often exceeding six children per woman.
Egypt’s demographic transition echoes trends once seen in East Asia but unfolds amid economic turmoil, posing difficult challenges.
While fewer births may ease pressure on resources and infrastructure, the risk looms of accelerated population aging if growth and economic revival falter. How Egypt navigates this delicate balance will shape its future for decades to come.
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